DETROIT – Per the polls and odds, Michigan appears they stay blue in the upcoming elections. Both for their Class I Senate seat that is open and their electoral college odds, the Democrats are favored to win.
Class I Senate Seat
Debbie Stabenow - Michigan's Senator since 2000 - is not seeking reelection in part due to her time spent in office as well as her belief in a new future.
“Inspired by a new generation of leaders, I have decided to pass the torch in the U.S. Senate," said Stabenow in January of last year. "I am announcing today that I will not seek re-election and will leave the U.S. Senate at the end of my term on January 3, 2025."
This means a seat that has been Republican-filled only twice since 1952 is up for grabs but the political betting odds align with the popular party.
Michigan Betting Odds - Senate Seat
- Democrat (Elissa Slotkin) -450
- Republican (Mike Rogers) +300
With Stabenow stepping aside, the favorite becomes Elissa Slotkin, with strong odds to continue Stabenow's legacy. As Stabenow won by only a 6.5% margin (~275k votes) in 2016 on a 56.72% voter turnout, republican nominee Mike Rogers could be overlooked.
Still, if you follow the money - often a good notation when looking at political prop bets and who wins - Slotkin has about triple the money to that of Rogers.
With $16 million raised (through March 2024), Slotkin's team is well supported compared to Rogers' $5 million raised. While it may not come down to the issues and plans to fix them, both have launched campaigns expressing their goals.
| Slotkin's Talking Points | Rogers' Talking Points |
|---|---|
| Protect our democracy and rights | Fix the crumbling economy |
| Keep kids safe in the community | Stop the growing threat of China |
| Make things in America | End the border crisis |
| Expand and defend the middle class of Michigan | Restore law and order |
As Rogers attempts to control a seat that has been Democrat-run after Spencer Abraham's control in 1994, he'll need a high Republican voter turnout to ensure this happens.
What Way Will Michigan Vote For President?
While considered a swing state in 2024, Michigan has voted blue in every election since Clinton in 1992, except for Donald Trump's win in 2016. Winning by only 0.2% of the vote, Joe Biden flipped Michigan blue again in 2020, winning by almost 3%.